Risk and protective factors for new onset binge eating, low weight, and self-harm symptoms in over 25,000 individuals in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic (preprint)

Objective: The disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with poor mental health, including increases in eating disorder and self-harm symptoms. We investigated risk and protective factors for new onset of these symptoms during the pandemic. Method: Data were from the COVID-19 Psychiatry and Neurological Genetics study and the Repeated Assessment of Mental health in Pandemics Study (n = 45,058). Exposures were socio-demographic characteristics, lifetime psychiatric disorder, and COVID-related variables, including SARS-CoV-2 infection/illness with COVID-19. We identified four sub-samples of participants without pre-pandemic experience of our outcomes: binge eating (n = 18,172), low weight (n = 19,148), suicidal and/or self-harm ideation (n = 12,650), and self-harm (n = 20,266). Participants reported on our outcomes at frequent intervals (fortnightly to monthly). We fitted four logistic regression models to identify factors associated with new onset of our outcomes. Results: Within each subsample, new onset was reported by: 16.9% for binge eating, 8.9% for low weight, 26.6% for suicidal and/or self-harm ideation, and 3.3.% for self-harm. Shared risk factors included having a lifetime psychiatric disorder, not being in paid employment, and higher pandemic worry scores. Conversely, infection with SARS-CoV-2/illness with COVID-19 was linked to lower odds of all outcomes. Other factors were associated with one outcome, such as pandemic-related loneliness with suicidal and/or self-harm ideation. Discussion: Overall, we detected shared risk factors that may drive the comorbidity between eating disorders and self-harm. Subgroups of individuals with these risk factors may require more frequent monitoring during future pandemics.

Development and validation of DNA Methylation scores in two European cohorts augment 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes (preprint)

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) presents a major health and economic burden that could be alleviated with improved early prediction and intervention. While standard risk factors have shown good predictive performance, we show that the use of blood-based DNA methylation information leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of 10-year T2D incidence risk. Previous studies have been largely constrained by linear assumptions, the use of CpGs one-at-a-time, and binary outcomes. We present a flexible approach (via an R package, MethylPipeR ) based on a range of linear and tree-ensemble models that incorporate time-to-event data for prediction. Using the Generation Scotland cohort (training set n cases =374, n controls =9,461; test set n cases =252, n controls =4,526) our best-performing model (Area Under the Curve (AUC)=0.872, Precision Recall AUC (PRAUC)=0.302) showed notable improvement in 10-year onset prediction beyond standard risk factors (AUC=0.839, PRAUC=0.227). Replication was observed in the German-based KORA study (n=1,451, n cases = 142, p=1.6×10 -5 ).

Face covering adherence is positively associated with better mental health and wellbeing: a longitudinal analysis of the CovidLife surveys (preprint)

Face masks or coverings are effective at reducing airborne infection rates, yet pandemic mitigation measures, including wearing face coverings, have been suggested to contribute to reductions in quality of life and poorer mental health. Longitudinal analyses of more than 11,000 participants across the UK found no association between lower adherence to face covering guidelines and poorer mental health. The opposite appears to be true. Even after controlling for behavioral, social, and psychological confounds, including measures of pre-pandemic mental health, individuals who wore face coverings "most of the time" or "always" had better mental health and wellbeing than those who did not. These results suggest that wearing face coverings more often will not negatively impact mental health.